— From Population Decline and Fiscal Rigidity to a Future Strategy that Protects “Everyday Well-being”

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A comprehensive analysis of Yabu City’s population decline, aging, and fiscal rigidity. Proposals for tourism, agriculture, and migration to restore community vitality.


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Introduction | The “Lived Reality” Behind the Numbers

I am a blogger living in Yabu City, a small municipality in northern Hyōgo Prefecture, Japan, and I live with a severe disability.
In daily life, I notice things that others overlook: the height of a step, fewer buses running, longer waiting times at clinics. These are not just inconveniences; they are subtle signals that society is quietly shrinking.

Statistical data confirm that Yabu faces the same challenges as many rural Japanese cities: population decline, aging, and fiscal rigidity. But this is not an unavoidable fate. By confronting the numbers directly and building systems that let residents experience well-being in daily life, Yabu can recover its vitality.

This article presents a data-driven diagnosis of Yabu City, identifies the underlying challenges, and proposes future strategies that could help citizens truly enjoy “everyday richness.”


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1. Current Status of Yabu City

1-1. Population Decline and Aging

Population: 22,129 (2020 census).

Seniors (65+): 39.5% of residents, well above the national average.

Annual population decline rate: –1.79%, especially sharp among young adults leaving for cities.


➡ Without intervention, Yabu will inevitably fall below 20,000 residents.

1-2. Fiscal Rigidity

FY2023 budget: revenue ¥20.9 billion, expenditures ¥20.1 billion.

Net fiscal balance: small surplus.

Ordinary expense ratio: 97.4%, the worst since Yabu’s establishment.


➡ Almost no room for new investment or bold initiatives.

1-3. Industry and Resources

Gross regional product: ~¥79 billion.

Breakdown: Primary sector 2.1%, secondary 24.3%, tertiary 72.3%.

Main industries: manufacturing, tourism, agriculture.

Key resources: Serpentinite rice, Tajima beef, Asakura pepper, Mt. Hyōno, Hachibuse Highlands, Amataki waterfall.

Strong infrastructure: fiber-optic internet fully installed citywide.


➡ Yabu is uniquely positioned to combine “nature and connectivity.”

1-4. National Strategic Special Zone

Designated in 2014 as a Special Zone for Mountain Agriculture Reform.

Deregulations allow corporate farming, flexible land use, agricultural R&D.


➡ Yabu is institutionally ready to experiment with “agriculture × new industries.”


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2. Key Challenges

1. Young people leave and rarely return
After high school, most move to cities for study or work. Few pathways exist for return—jobs, housing, or community ties are lacking.


2. Rigid public finance
Large costs are locked into maintaining infrastructure (schools, roads, water systems). Very little budget can be redirected to innovation.


3. Seasonal tourism imbalance
Skiing and cherry blossoms draw visitors, but summer and autumn remain underdeveloped.


4. Fragmented branding
Rice, beef, pepper, waterfalls, highlands—strong assets, but no unified story ties them together.




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3. Future Strategies for Revitalization

Three principles:

1. Protect the base of everyday life.


2. Strengthen mechanisms to “earn” (tourism, agriculture, energy).


3. Create pathways for people to return and stay.




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3-1. Short-Term (0–1 year): Strengthening the Foundations

Repurpose public facilities:
School buildings become hubs for training, educational travel, and corporate retreats.

Demand-based public transport (MaaS):
App-based shared taxis for hospital visits, shopping, and school commuting.

Transparency in infrastructure costs:
Publish costs for water, snow removal, and waste by route. Build consensus with residents on sustainable service levels.



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3-2. Medium-Term (1–3 years): Building Engines of Growth

Year-round tourism model:

Spring: giant trees, cherry blossoms, rural restoration

Summer: stargazing, river trekking, summer schools

Autumn: pepper harvest, mushroom picking, arts residencies

Winter: skiing + wood-fueled heating experiences



➡ Each stay should include lodging, food, experiences, local products, and donations.

Agriculture brand integration:
Combine rice, Tajima beef, and Asakura pepper under the narrative of “soil, aroma, and time.”
Expand into subscription-based e-commerce to sustain “relationship populations.”

Distributed energy systems:
Introduce biomass heating for hotels and public buildings.
Harness small hydropower and rooftop solar with storage for resilience.



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3-3. Long-Term (3–5 years): Pathways to Return

Education × employment career loop:
Dual programs linking high schools with local companies.
Encourage a natural cycle of “go out, gain experience, and come back.”

Migration strategy:
Turn vacant houses into furnished, fiber-connected, flat-rate utility homes.
Guide visitors from trial stays → relationship ties → permanent settlement.

Well-being Valley concept:
Develop Yabu as a hub for healing and preventive health tourism—rehabilitation, food therapy, and forest therapy integrated with hospitality.



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4. Financing the Strategy

Cut public facility floor space per capita by 15%.

Reduce maintenance cost per capita by 10%.

Improve ordinary expense ratio from 97.4% → 95% → 93%.


Funding sources:

Corporate hometown tax donations (for education travel, guide training, tree preservation).

Bundled grant applications across ministries (agriculture, tourism, environment, digital).

Energy-as-a-service (PPA) for zero upfront cost renewables.



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5. A Perspective from Disability

As someone who acquired a severe disability later in life, I no longer see a “small step” as something shameful.
Even a short stride, if steady, becomes a true path forward.

Yabu’s future is the same.
No miracle turnaround is needed—just a steady accumulation of small improvements.
The collective total of “small well-being” will reshape the city’s destiny.


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6. Conclusion | Toward a City Where “Ordinary Life” is a Source of Pride

Yabu faces serious demographic and fiscal challenges.

Yet it possesses rich natural, agricultural, and digital resources.

By protecting the base, strengthening engines of growth, and creating return pathways, the city can be revitalized.

For me, as a disabled resident, the lesson is clear: small steps, when shared by many, create the most powerful transformation.


> “Being able to live an ordinary life is the greatest richness.”