Is It Really Because of the Low Birthrate?
Why I Think, for Most Companies, It’s Simply Management’s Own Doing


—

When you look at the news, you see headlines like:

> “Labor shortage bankruptcies hit an all-time high”
“No workers because of the declining birthrate”
“Companies going bust one after another due to hiring difficulties…”



The numbers themselves are certainly striking.
But the moment we jump to “It’s the low birthrate’s fault” or
“Japan’s demographic structure is to blame,”
I can’t help feeling that we’re missing something very important.

As someone who became severely disabled in midlife and now lives and works in a rural area while keeping up with the news, I can’t shake this thought:

> Yes, it’s true that labor shortage bankruptcies are at a record high.
But a large share of them are simply “management’s own doing.”
And for most companies, the low birthrate is not the direct cause.



In this article, I’ll try to unpack, with horizontal thinking and in words as clearly as I can:

The numbers and reality behind labor shortage bankruptcies

Why the narrative “It’s all because of the low birthrate” is dangerous

What typical “self-inflicted patterns” actually look like

What I see from the position of a worker and a person with a disability

And some hints on how management and work styles need to be redesigned from here on


If I had to summarize my conclusion in one line, it would be this:

> Most labor shortage bankruptcies aren’t happening because
“there are no people out there.”
They’re happening because management refused to face the reality that
“under these conditions and with this way of working,
no one wants to come anymore.”

The low birthrate is like “the air in the room,”
but for most firms it isn’t the fatal blow.



From here, I’ll walk through the thought process that led me to that conclusion, step by step.


—

1. What’s Actually Happening?

Understanding the Phenomenon of “Labor Shortage Bankruptcies”

First, let’s roughly organize what’s going on.
If we skip this part, we end up in pure emotion mode.

1-1. The Numbers Really Are at “Record Highs”

Various surveys show that bankruptcies citing “labor shortage” as a factor
have been quietly but steadily increasing in recent years.

“Labor shortage–related bankruptcies” are sharply up from the previous year

The main categories behind them are:

“Hiring difficulties”

“Rising labor costs”

“Employee resignations”



One especially notable point:

Companies with paid-in capital under 10 million yen
— in other words, micro-businesses — account for more than half of all cases

By industry, the ones hit hardest are:

Construction

Transport

Services

Nursing care and welfare
and other labor-intensive sectors



So we can say:

> The more a business model depends on “human hands,”
the more exposed it is to bankruptcy risk.



1-2. How the Media Labels It:

“Labor Shortage = Declining Birthrate = Inevitable”

Looking at these numbers, the media tends to attach a very simple storyline:

1. Labor shortage bankruptcies are increasing


2. Japan is in an era of low birthrate, aging, and population decline


3. Therefore, the number of workers is shrinking


4. Therefore, bankruptcies inevitably increase



At first glance, this seems logically consistent.

But there’s a big problem here.

> The moment you pull out the giant problem of “the low birthrate,”
the quality of each individual company’s management decisions
disappears completely into the fog.



That discomfort is the starting point of this article.


—

2. Maybe It’s Not “There Are No People,”

But “No One Wants to Come Under Those Conditions”

From here, let’s shift our perspective a bit using horizontal thinking.

2-1. The Mystery of Why Some Firms Attract People and Others Don’t,

Even in the Same Region and Industry

If it really were simply “there are no workers because of the low birthrate,” then:

Every company,

In every region,

In every industry


should be equally unable to hire, and equally at risk of going under.

But reality looks nothing like that.

In the same town and same line of work,

Some companies have a steady stream of applicants

Others get zero applications


For almost identical jobs,

Some workplaces where young people stick around

Some where new hires vanish within three months



In other words:

> It’s not that the “human beings” themselves
have physically vanished from the map.
It’s that there are very few companies where people think,
“Under these conditions, I’d actually like to work here.”



2-2. The Problem Isn’t “No People Exist,”

But “You’re Not Making an Offer People Want”

If you look through job postings, you see patterns like these everywhere:

Take-home pay is right at the minimum wage line

They advertise “Monthly income X yen (including overtime)” to gloss over the reality

The copy is nothing but “Motivated persons welcome” and
“We’re a friendly, homey workplace”

Concrete details about holidays, overtime, raises, and so on are vague

During trial periods: no allowances, no bonuses, overtime is heavy


Meanwhile, in the very same region and industry, there are firms that:

Clearly spell out pay, allowances, and raises

Show a sample daily schedule so applicants can picture the work

Use photos and videos to convey the actual workplace atmosphere

Put into words “Why work here?” in a way people can feel


Naturally, people flock to the latter,
and the former complain, “No one’s applying,” “We’re short of hands.”

What’s going on here isn’t:

> A shortage of human beings per se,
but the completely natural phenomenon that
no one raises their hand for an unattractive offer.




—

3. The Low Birthrate Is Just “Background Noise”

— Why It’s Not the Decisive Cause

So does that mean the low birthrate is irrelevant?
Of course not.

3-1. The Low Birthrate and Population Decline

Are Like Gravity

The low birthrate, aging, and population decline are undeniably heavy social issues:

Shrinking working-age population

Outflow of people from rural areas into major cities

Depopulation and aging in certain regions


But these are more like “air” or “gravity.”

> They’re background conditions that apply
to every single company doing business in Japan.



Even under the same gravitational pull,

Some people jump high

Some walk normally

Some stand still

Some squat down and give up


In exactly the same way, we see:

Companies that secure talent even under population decline

Companies that struggle under the same conditions


It’s just that they diverge in their choices and responses.

3-2. We Need to Separate “Background” from “Decisive Factor”

So it’s important to clearly separate:

Background factors: low birthrate, population decline, aging,
urban concentration

Decisive factors:

Business model

Pricing and bargaining power

How management treats people

Work design

Whether systems and training are in place



If you explain a bankruptcy purely in terms of “background factors,”
the question “So what could we have changed?” disappears.

And the moment that question disappears,
so do the lessons we could have carried into the future.


—

4. Seven “Self-Inflicted” Management Patterns

That Make Labor Shortage Bankruptcies More Likely

From here, I’d like to be a bit harsh and list some patterns that,
honestly, look very much like “you did this to yourself.”

Just to be clear:
My criticism is aimed at structures and decisions, not at front-line workers.

Pattern 1: A Business Model Stuck in the Showa Era

Reliance on manpower and brute force

Long working hours as the norm

“Overtime is just part of the job” culture

Organizations where “guts and perseverance” are what gets you praised


Companies that have kept these assumptions for decades,
without changing how they create value, become extremely vulnerable
as soon as labor costs rise even a little.

Unit prices remain low

They never negotiate price increases

They keep plugging the gap with “cheap labor”


When that approach stops working and they suddenly cry:

> “We can’t find people because of the low birthrate,”



they’re essentially changing the subject.

Pattern 2: Dodging Price Negotiations for Years

The further you are down the subcontracting chain,

> “We have no choice but to accept whatever price cuts
the prime contractor demands.”



That’s a very real structural problem.

But at the same time, there are plenty of firms that:

Have never once tried to negotiate

Gave up from the start with “It’s impossible anyway”

Never took the trouble to clearly explain their own cost structure


Price negotiations are scary,
but by dodging them for years, these firms:

Let their gross margins be shaved down

Lost the room to pay fair wages

Eventually see “labor shortage bankruptcies” surface


At some point, we have to admit
this has a strong flavor of “self-inflicted.”

Pattern 3: Brushing Off Hiring with “Good People Just Don’t Apply”

In hiring conversations, you often hear things like:

> “We do put out job ads, but no good people apply.”
“Young people these days quit so quickly.”



Behind a statement like that, the reality is often this:

The job post is just a copy-paste template

Pay, raises, and evaluation criteria are fuzzy

Interviews turn into “lecture time from above”

There’s no real onboarding or follow-up system


And then they complain:

> “We can’t get good people.”
“Young workers don’t stick around.”



It’s an incredibly one-sided picture.

Meanwhile, in the same area and industry, there are companies that:

Treat applicants with respect

Are open about their weaknesses as well as their strengths

Invest in follow-up after hiring


And unsurprisingly, those firms do attract people.

Pattern 4: Pushing Everything Onto the Front Line and Burning People Out

The burden of shortages is almost always dumped
directly onto the frontlines.

Staffing is too thin, but the workload keeps growing

Even if new hires join, there’s no time to train them

A few veterans end up shouldering everything


If management then:

Never reviews the workflow

Doesn’t standardize or reorganize tasks,
or introduce tools and systems

Just relies on “field strength” and “team spirit”


then frontline workers are slowly ground down.

The result:

> People quietly start saying, “I can’t do this anymore,” and quit
→ The shortage worsens
→ The remaining staff are pushed even closer to the edge



This negative loop ends in a “labor shortage bankruptcy.”

When you hit that wall,
can you really just say, “This is all the low birthrate’s fault”?

Pattern 5: Neglecting Training, Handover, and Manuals

As someone working with a severe disability,
the presence or absence of manuals and standardization
is literally a life-and-death issue.

Can the work still function if someone is absent?

Can new staff get up to speed quickly?

Does the system rely on individual memory and personal tricks, or not?


The weaker the system, the more:

One resignation can cause the whole site to crack

Things become “We’re doomed without that one person”

Management tends to think only in terms of “How many bodies do we have?”


When you hit the limit and declare
“We went bankrupt because of a labor shortage,”

structurally speaking, that often looks like:

> “The bill for ignoring training and system-building
has finally come due.”



Pattern 6: Not Looking at the Numbers and Postponing Future Investments

Chasing only sales

Barely looking at profit margins or productivity

Constantly postponing equipment, IT, and human-capital investment


These firms are extremely vulnerable
to swings in the economy, price hikes, and rising labor costs.

In reality, they’ve often avoided tough decisions like:

Which lines of work to stop doing

Where to concentrate investments

Which business area to exit


And as a result:

> They stumble into the limit point
while still carrying everything halfway.



If you then wrap that up as “Because of the low birthrate,”
you erase the chance to ask:

> “Where exactly did we go wrong?”



Pattern 7: Using “Labor Shortage” as an Excuse

to Treat People Roughly

Personally, this is the pattern I find most troubling.

“Labor shortage” gets used as a shield to justify:

Not raising wages

Not improving working conditions

Leaving harassment and toxic behavior unchecked


With lines like:

> “We’re short on people, so what can you do?”
“Everyone else is putting up with it.”



The result:

People on the front line break down mentally and physically

Sick leave and resignations pile up

New hires also quit quickly


Of course that pushes the company closer to a labor shortage bankruptcy.

But what’s actually happening here isn’t:

> A simple “shortage of workers,”



it’s:

> A deep loss of trust in how management treats human beings.




—

5. Not Every Management Team Is Lazy

— There Are Cases That Are Truly Structurally Difficult

Up to now I’ve been pretty harsh,
but I’m not saying every labor shortage bankruptcy
is due to management negligence.

5-1. The “Squeezed Middle” of Highly Public Services

Take, for example:

Healthcare and welfare in rural areas

Public transportation

Schools and childcare


These are high-public-value fields
where prices and fees are effectively fixed.

Payment levels are set by the government

There are clear limits to how much you can raise fees for users

But labor and other costs still rise


In this structural squeeze, there are many operators who genuinely:

> “Want to protect staffing levels on the front line.”
“Want to maintain employment as long as possible.”



When such organizations, after trying everything they can,
are forced to withdraw or close down,
simply calling that “self-inflicted” is too rough.

5-2. Physical Labor Shortage in Depopulated, Super-Aged Areas

In towns with just a few thousand residents,
or regions where almost all young people have left,
there are cases where:

There literally aren’t enough working-age people within commuting distance

The workforce is mostly older people hitting physical limits

It’s extremely hard to attract outsiders or migrants


This is a physical shortage of people,
and it does exist in reality.

Even if wages go up,
people may still not come.

We must not forget
that there are regions and businesses trapped in such “no-win” conditions.


—

6. Why the Moment You Say

“It’s Because of the Low Birthrate Anyway”
Your Thinking (and Future) Stops

Even so, I still want to say this:

> No matter how tough the structural conditions are,
the moment you decide “It’s the low birthrate, we can’t help it,”
the future of that company closes.



Because:

The more you focus on “unchangeable background factors,”

The less you can see “things that could have been changed.”


For example:

Downsizing the scale of operations

Partnering or merging with other firms

Narrowing the scope of products/services

Using IT and external services more aggressively


Did they carefully examine each of these
(and other) possible moves
before concluding “There’s nothing we can do”?

If they skip that process and jump straight to
“We went under because there are no workers due to the low birthrate,”
then it’s fair to say they’ve:

> “Stopped thinking.”




—

7. Labor Shortage Bankruptcies Might Be

Silent No-Confidence Votes from Workers

Now let’s flip the perspective completely.

7-1. Why Workers Decide Not to Choose a Company

From the worker’s side,
the reasons not to choose a company are actually very simple:

Pay is too low

Too few days off, or it’s hard to take them

Overtime is heavy; unpaid overtime is normal

Bosses are abusive or power-harassing

It doesn’t feel like the company will protect you if something happens

The future looks unclear


Even without anyone mentioning the low birthrate or population decline,
there’s no reason to entrust your life and time
to a company where you see no reason to work there.

If anything, precisely because we’re in an era of population decline:

> Workers are regaining the right
to choose workplaces that actually value them.



7-2. What It Means When “Unchosen Companies” Exit

Labor shortage bankruptcies are, of course, sad news.

People working there lose their jobs

Local employment suffers

Business partners may face knock-on effects


A lot ends when a company closes.

But from society’s wider perspective,
it can also mean this:

> Companies that treat people roughly,
or see them as disposable,
are becoming less likely to be chosen
and are naturally exiting the market.



That, in the long run, might be a sign of something healthy:

> We may be moving into an era where
companies that don’t value people
simply cannot survive.




—

8. My Own Experience Working as a Mid-Career, Severely Disabled Person

— Companies That See People as “Costs” vs. Companies That See People as “People”

Let me insert a bit of my own story here.

8-1. With a Disability, the Gap in How Companies Treat People

Becomes Blindingly Obvious

I became severely disabled in midlife,
and have since experienced a few different workplaces
while doing rehab.

One thing I feel very strongly is that
even among companies that all say “We’re short-staffed,”
there’s a huge gap between:

Companies that see people as “costs” or just “hands and feet”

Companies that see people as “teammates” or “valuable resources”


In the first group:

What they call “accommodation” actually means “cheap labor”

“Productivity” and “immediate impact” always trump accommodation

There’s little understanding of medical appointments or fluctuating health


In the second group:

They try to balance accommodations with productivity

They standardize and split tasks so the burden doesn’t pile up on one person

They design work around what you can do, not just what you can’t


It doesn’t take a genius to see
which type of company attracts people,
and which is more likely to drift towards a labor shortage bankruptcy.

8-2. “We’re Short-Staffed” Is Not a License

to Treat People Carelessly

As someone working with a disability,
these lines hit especially hard:

> “We’re short-staffed, so you can’t really take time off, right?”
“There aren’t enough people, so please bear with it for now.”



I get where they’re coming from.
I know frontline teams are genuinely at their limits.

But when:

“We’re short-staffed” becomes the magic phrase everyone uses

The people with the least power and weakest bodies
are the ones whose health is eaten away first


then something is very wrong.

The moment “labor shortage” is used as a reason
to cut back on care and consideration,
that company will quietly be abandoned by its workers.

If a closure at the end of that process
is labeled a “labor shortage bankruptcy,”
then yes, from my perspective at least,
it does feel like “self-inflicted” to a significant degree.


—

9. What Management Really Needs Now

Is a Design Mindset That Doesn’t Take “More People” for Granted

So what should be done?

Just wringing our hands and saying
“I’m scared because there’ll be fewer workers”
won’t change anything.

9-1. Shift from “Let’s Add More People”

to “Let’s Not Rely Too Heavily on People”

In an age of labor shortage, what we really need is:

> A shift in design from “We’ll just hire more”
to “We can’t rely excessively on manpower.”



Concretely, that means:

Thoroughly mapping and reviewing all work processes

Separating truly critical tasks from low-value or unnecessary ones

Standardizing, documenting, using video manuals

Introducing IT tools and cloud services

Partnering with external providers and outsourcing where it makes sense


All with the goal of:

> Making sure the work can be done safely
with a smaller number of people,
without burning them out.



The key point is:

Not to “cut people”

But to protect the health and longevity of those who remain


9-2. Rethink “Labor Costs = Just a Cost”

as “Labor Costs = Investment”

Companies that still treat labor costs purely as something to be shaved off will almost certainly struggle in an era of labor shortages.

Suppressing wages

Making up the difference with long hours

Which leads to resignations and hiring difficulties


Breaking out of that loop requires a mental shift:

> Treat labor costs as investment
in value creation, not just an expense.



Of course, that means:

Raising the value-added of what you do

Regaining some control over pricing

Being chosen not for “cheapness,”
but for “value”


That’s a big, tough transition to make.

But if you keep dodging it and then blame your eventual
“labor shortage bankruptcy” on the low birthrate,
that simply isn’t fair to anyone.


—

10. A Message to Workers:

You Don’t Have to Blame Yourself
for “Low Birthrate” or “Labor Shortage”

If you’ve read this far and thought:

> “That’s exactly my workplace…”



you might have let out a heavy sigh.

10-1. This Is Not Your Fault

First, I want to say this clearly:

> If you’re being told,
“We’re short-staffed, so we all have to endure,”
“It’s the low birthrate, so it can’t be helped,”
and your body and mind are wearing down—

That is not your fault.



In many cases:

Management never built proper systems

They never redesigned work styles

They kept postponing hard choices
about price negotiations and business focus


And now the frontline is being forced
to pay the price for all of that.

10-2. It’s Okay to Leave Companies

That Don’t Value People

If your current workplace is one where:

Care and accommodations are quietly cut
with “we’re short-staffed” as the excuse

Health and family are always expected to come second to work

People who quit are treated as traitors


then it’s more than okay
to quietly plan your exit.

> Choosing a place that genuinely values you
is not selfish or childish.
It’s a survival strategy for our time.



Behind the increase in labor shortage bankruptcies
is also a positive shift:

Workers, one by one,
are reclaiming the right
to stop selling themselves cheap.

That’s something we shouldn’t overlook.


—

11. A Few Questions for Those on the Management Side

Before Saying “It’s the Low Birthrate’s Fault”

Finally, I’d like to gently toss a few questions
to managers and supervisors.

11-1. Four Questions to Ask Yourself Honestly

1. Is our company a place people actually want to join?
When someone sees your job ad, would they honestly feel,
“Yes, I’d like to work there”?


2. Would people genuinely want to work under these conditions?
Looking at the pay, time off, work style, and human environment together,
does it look fair and livable?


3. Have we avoided the hard work of system-building and organizing tasks?
Have we been putting off that uncomfortable “full inventory” of what we do?


4. Have we used ‘labor shortage’ as an excuse to treat people carelessly?
Have we been cutting care and accommodations with
“We’re short-staffed, so it can’t be helped”?



Honestly thinking through these questions
might be the real starting line for surviving an era of labor shortages.

11-2. Before You Say “It’s the Low Birthrate”

When the words “It’s the low birthrate’s fault”
are about to leave your mouth,
try pausing and rephrasing:

“Given this gravitational field called the low birthrate,
what can we change?”

“What can we start doing tomorrow
to become a company people actively choose?”


As long as you keep those questions alive,
there’s still a future.


—

12. In the End:

Labor Shortage Bankruptcies as a Sign
That Companies Which Don’t Value People
Are No Longer Being Chosen

Let me pull together the essence of this article.

Yes, labor shortage bankruptcies are at record highs.

But many of them are the accumulated result of management choices, like:

Never updating the business model

Dodging price negotiations

Neglecting hiring, training, and system-building

Using “we’re short-staffed” as a license to treat people roughly


The low birthrate and population decline are “background gravity”
for every company in Japan,
but for most they are not the decisive cause of failure.

Labor shortage bankruptcies can be read as:

> “Companies that don’t value people
are being quietly handed a ‘no’ vote
by their own workers.”



Workers have the right to:

> “Choose workplaces that genuinely value them,”
and we should exercise that right more confidently.



On the management side,
we need to move away from the convenient story
of “It’s the low birthrate, so that’s that”
and back to the harder question:

> “Within that reality,
what exactly are we going to redesign?”




Since becoming severely disabled in midlife,
I’ve felt both the beauty of the world
and the distortions of society
much more sharply than before.

The surge in labor shortage bankruptcies
is one more expression of those distortions.

And yet, if behind that trend
there is also a shift where workers
stop underselling themselves,
and companies that don’t value people
simply stop being chosen—

> Then, in the long run,
this painful transition might actually be part of
our move toward a society that values human beings more.



In the midst of that change,
I want to keep quietly choosing
organizations and work
that value people,
grounded in a way of living
that values myself.

If news about labor shortage bankruptcies
makes your chest feel tight and your heart sink,
I hope this article helps put some of your unease into words,
and gently supports your right to
“treat yourself with care.”